Orbexit: Celebrations and challenges
After sixteen years in power, Europe’s troublemaker-in-chief suffered a crushing election defeat. The end of the “Viktator” is reason for joy, and so is the record voter turnout. Hungarian people took their country and their future back! The images of huge crowds chanting “Europe, Europe, Europe!” are so moving. Hungary gets a new start. Celebration is in order!
Reflections by Sophie in 't Veld
Today we have woken up in a new Europe, now the work starts. Because Orbàn’s exit may be a relief, but it does not fix the structural issues.
For starters, the other government leaders in Europe, who have been complaining about Orbàn for many years, have lost their scapegoat. It was easy to blame him for the paralysis in the European Council. But Orbàn was not the only one using his veto right in the European Council to get his way. The only way to avoid a repetition of the Orbán obstruction is to eliminate all vetoes. Now all government leaders have the opportunity to show how committed they really are to a strong EU: are they ready to give up their veto rights and make sure Europe cannot be held hostage anymore by a single leader? Vetoes do not protect national interests, they are only ever used as a bargaining chip or a tool for obstruction, blackmail and extortion by government leaders.
The European Union has been saved by the Hungarian voters. But all the cheering this evening cannot hide the fact that for sixteen years the EU tolerated him. The EPP family protected him for over a decade, until he became too toxic even for them. Despite the Article 7 procedure launched by the European Parliament, the European Council refused to impose any sanctions. And although EU funds for Hungary had been frozen under the rule of law conditionality, the Commission decided to release 10 billion euro to get Orbán to drop his veto against support for Ukraine in 2023.
These structural weaknesses have not disappeared with Orbàn’s departure. Europe urgently needs democratic reform and much more robust mechanisms to protect the rule of law throughout the territory of the EU.
All over Europe and beyond people are celebrating the defeat of a corrupted, nationalist autocrat. Magyar will undoubtedly undertake to restore the damage done to the rule of law in Hungary. And he will likely be more constructive in the European Council. But the next weeks and months will tell where he will take the country. Although he became Orbán's Nemesis, for many years he was part of the inner circle of the Fidesz leadership. He is conservative and stated he will first and foremost defend Hungarian interests in Europe.
Magyar has secured the two-thirds majority he needs to undo the constitutional changes of Orbán. That is a good thing. But any leader holding an absolute majority, without meaningful opposition, has a great responsibility. Who can resist the temptation to abuse that power? Will he use his power to restore checks and balances, to enable strong democratic scrutiny and accountability, even if that is a nuisance?
Three years ago Donald Tusk won the Polish elections, ending eight years of autocratic rule by the PiS party. The European Commission immediately decided to release the EU funds for Poland that had been frozen under the rule of law conditionality. That was a stupid mistake. The Commission seemed to signal that the freezing or unfreezing of EU money was done on the basis of election promises or on the basis of which political party was in power. It became even worse when, a year later, a President was elected who vetoes most of the rule of law reforms.
That mistake should not be repeated. Funds should be released on the basis of actual results and after a thorough assessment by the Commission. The justification of any decision has to be made public. Magyar’s announcement that Hungary will join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office is a very important step in the process.
Moreover, many centrist, progressive and left-wing Hungarians have voted for Magyar, as he was the only candidate who was able to beat Orbàn. But their voice is not represented in the Parliament. Magyar needs to ensure his government represents all those who voted for him. His victory was a victory of the people, not just one party.
There are many challenges ahead. But for the first time since 2010, Europe and Hungary have a chance to restore and strengthen the democratic rule of law, to eradicate corruption and to build a better future. Let us grab that opportunity with both hands!
Sophie is a former Member of the European Parliament for Volt and others. She sat in the Parliament for 20 years until 2024. Originally published on Sophie in 't Veld's blog and redistributed with her permission.